The Stakes
$1,200
Felony theft threshold (raised from $650)
-21%
Prison population since 2018
#1
Attack ad topic (expected)
Crime is Nevada's most emotionally charged political issue. The 2019 passage of AB 236âa sweeping criminal justice reform billâreduced prison populations but became a flashpoint. Opponents blame it for increased retail theft and drug crimes. Supporters say it saved money and reduced over-incarceration. Both sides cherry-pick statistics.
What Is AB 236?
Assembly Bill 236 (2019) was Nevada's "Justice Reinvestment" lawâpart of a national movement to reduce mass incarceration while reinvesting savings into crime prevention. Here's what it actually did:
Key Provisions
- 1. Felony theft threshold: Raised from $650 to $1,200
- 2. Drug penalties: Reduced for possession, restructured for trafficking
- 3. Burglary laws: Required proof of intent (harder to prosecute)
- 4. Parole expansion: More inmates eligible for early release
- 5. Fentanyl (original): Initially treated similarly to other drugs
The Results (Contested)
Proponents Say
- ⢠Prison population down 21% (10,759 vs. 13,611)
- ⢠Hundreds of millions in "costs avoided"
- ⢠Reduced over-incarceration of non-violent offenders
Opponents Say
- ⢠Retail theft has increased (anecdotal + viral videos)
- ⢠Fentanyl provisions were initially too lenient
- ⢠Career criminals cycle through the system faster
The data problem: The Sentencing Commission notes there's no definitive data proving crime increased because of AB 236. Correlation isn't causation. But perception matters in politicsâand the perception is that Nevada got "softer."
Where They Stand
Aaron Ford
Democrat ⢠Attorney General
Position
This is Ford's biggest vulnerability. He was a primary architect of AB 236 and the "Justice Reinvestment" philosophy during his time as Senate Majority Leader. Now he's pivoting to "support law enforcement" messaging while defending the reform's intent.
The Tension
Ford championed raising the felony theft threshold to $1,200. Now retail theft is a top voter concern. He's trying to defend the philosophy of AB 236 while distancing from its outcomes. This "I was for it before I was for modifying it" position is politically dangerous. Lombardo's ads will hammer this relentlessly.
Key Actions
- ⢠Supported AB 236: Core architect of criminal justice reform
- ⢠Created retail theft task force (as AG)
- ⢠Now supports "targeted" modifications to address fentanyl
- ⢠Campaigns on being "tough on corporations, smart on crime"
Alexis Hill
Democrat ⢠Washoe County Chair
Position
Not tied to AB 236 (county-level official). Interesting record: voted for the Washoe County camping ban criminalizing homelessnessâa "law and order" position that put her to the right of Republican Commissioner Mike Clark (who opposed it).
The Tension
Hill is a progressive on most issues but took the "tough" position on homelessness. This gives her flexibilityâshe can claim she's not a "soft on crime liberal" while maintaining progressive credentials. But homeless advocates criticized her camping ban vote as criminalizing poverty rather than addressing root causes.
Key Actions
- ⢠Camping ban vote: Voted FOR criminalizing homeless camping
- ⢠Not involved in AB 236 (state-level legislation)
- ⢠Standard progressive positions on policing reform
- ⢠Less defined on crime than Lombardo or Ford
The Uncomfortable Truth
What "Tough on Crime" People Miss
- ⢠Incarceration costs ~$30K/year per inmate. AB 236 saved real money.
- ⢠National crime trends show increases in many statesâregardless of local policy.
- ⢠Recidivism is high because prison doesn't rehabilitateâit warehouses.
- ⢠Most retail theft is organized crime from out of stateânot affected by felony thresholds.
What "Reform" People Miss
- ⢠Perception of lawlessness drives business decisions and quality of life.
- ⢠Fentanyl wasn't adequately addressed in original AB 236âa real failure.
- ⢠"Justice Reinvestment" promised reinvestment that never fully materialized.
- ⢠Voters care more about visible disorder than academic debates about incarceration.
The Fentanyl Factor
Both sides agree: AB 236's original fentanyl provisions were inadequate.
When AB 236 passed in 2019, fentanyl wasn't the dominant drug threat it is today. The bill initially treated fentanyl similarly to other narcoticsâwith weight-based thresholds that didn't account for fentanyl's extreme potency (a lethal dose is measured in milligrams).
- ⢠Nevada fentanyl deaths increased 300%+ from 2019-2023
- ⢠Legislators (including Ford's allies) supported tougher fentanyl penalties in 2023
- ⢠Lombardo signed these updatesâbut frames it as "cleaning up Democrats' mess"
The takeaway: AB 236's fentanyl provisions were a genuine mistake that reformers acknowledge. But Lombardo's framing ignores that fentanyl exploded nationallyânot just in Nevada, and not just because of AB 236.
Resort Corridor Court
In 2025, Lombardo signed the Safe Streets and Neighborhoods Act, which revived the Resort Corridor Courtâa specialized court for crimes committed on the Las Vegas Strip.
How It Works
- ⢠Dedicated judicial resources for Strip-area offenses
- ⢠Expedited processing of misdemeanor and felony cases
- ⢠"Order Out" provisions: Judges can ban individuals from the tourist corridor for up to one year
- ⢠Focused on protecting the economic engine of Nevada tourism
The Controversy
Supporters Say
- ⢠Protects tourists and Nevada's $70B tourism economy
- ⢠Swift justice deters crime on the Strip
- ⢠Gaming industry can't thrive without public safety
Critics Say (ACLU)
- ⢠"Order Out" effectively criminalizes homelessness
- ⢠Violates freedom of movement and assembly
- ⢠Privatizes public streets for casino benefit
Follow the money: Major casino operators (MGM, Caesars, Wynn) were significant Lombardo donors. The Resort Corridor Court directly benefits their properties by providing enhanced security enforcement on the Stripâessentially turning state judicial power into a security service for the gaming industry.
Evidence Scorecard
| Claim | Evidence | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Lombardo "kept Clark County safe" as Sheriff | Mixed. Crime rates fluctuated. Multiple controversies during tenure. | Mixed |
| Ford is "soft on crime" | He supported reform, not abolition. Created enforcement task forces. But AB 236 is his record. | Partly True |
| AB 236 caused crime increase | No definitive causal evidence. National trends similar. But perception is powerful. | Unproven |
| Hill is "tough on homelessness" | She voted for camping ban. More "law and order" than some Republicans on this issue. | True |
The Political Reality
Crime is Lombardo's strongest issue. He has the biography (Sheriff), the policy position (repeal/modify AB 236), and the attack line ("Aaron Ford made Nevada less safe").
Ford is on defense. He can argue the reform was smart policy, but "smart" doesn't resonate when voters feel unsafe. His pivot to "law enforcement support" may seem opportunistic.
Hill has the cleanest handsâshe wasn't involved in AB 236 and has a "tough" homelessness vote on her record. But she lacks Lombardo's credibility on the issue and Ford's statewide platform.